Trade Review and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The price test of 1.1944 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. A similar situation later occurred at the 1.1895 level, but this time on the sell side.

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged at 3.0% year over year, contrary to analysts' expectations of a possible decline. This supported the U.S. dollar and, accordingly, weakened the European currency.

Today, weak data are expected for the Manufacturing PMI in Germany and the eurozone, as well as a decline in German retail sales. In such a situation, the euro may face renewed and significant pressure, as these economic indicators are important signals of the region's economic health. Negative readings—especially in Germany's manufacturing sector, the locomotive of the European economy—could increase concerns about slowing economic growth. Weak data will not only have a direct impact on the exchange rate but may also influence decisions by the European Central Bank.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1:

Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1877 level (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.1947. At 1.1947, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected only after strong data.

Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1835 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels 1.1877 and 1.1947 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1835 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1772, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move from that level). Strong pressure on the pair may return today if weak economic data are released.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2:

I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1877 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels 1.1835 and 1.1772 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to focus on overbought and oversold zones

Important:

Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.